Ahead of a general election later this year, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak experienced two significant setbacks to his leadership. The Opposition Labour Party managed to reverse substantial Conservative majorities, securing victories in two by-elections in England on Friday.
Dan Egan of the Labour Party secured a victory in the House of Commons seat for Kingswood, located in south-west England. Similarly, Gen Kitchen, also from the Labour Party, emerged victorious in Wellingborough, a part of the East Midlands region of England.
Voters in two districts in England delivered new blows to beleaguered U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, electing opposition-party lawmakers in seats that Sunak’s Conservatives had held for years. https://t.co/EvHPYdavCe
— ABC News (@ABC) February 16, 2024
These outcomes represent a significant challenge for the British Indian leader, as the Conservatives had previously secured both seats with substantial leads in the last general election, which took place under Boris Johnson’s leadership in December 2019.
The Kingswood by-election took place following the resignation of Tory leader Chris Skidmore from his Member of Parliament position, due to his disagreement with Sunak’s environmental policies. Labour’s representative, Egan, succeeded in reversing Skidmore’s previous majority of over 11,000 votes in the constituency.
In Wellingborough, the electorate witnessed the recall of Tory MP Peter Bone by his constituents, following allegations of bullying and sexual misconduct, which he refutes. Labour’s candidate, Kitchen, managed to reverse Bone’s substantial majority of over 18,000 votes, securing the seat with a significant swing of 28.5% – the second largest in history.
“The Kingswood and Wellingborough results show that people want change and are ready to put their faith in a changed Labour Party to deliver it,” said Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer.
“The Tories have failed, Rishi’s recession proves that. Labour is back in the service of working people,” he said.
The dual losses are set to be a significant setback for the ruling Tories as they gear up for a general election, which 43-year-old Sunak has hinted will take place in the latter half of the year. The party, already lagging behind Labour in the polls, attempted to minimize the importance of the by-election outcome, dismissing it as a vote of dissatisfaction against the Tories.
Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, a Conservative MP and former minister in Boris Johnson’s Cabinet, expressed to the BBC that the Kingswood outcome was “not as dire as he had anticipated”, attributing it to Tory voters seemingly choosing not to vote. He proposed that a larger turnout could be expected in a general election, which he believes “concentrates people’s thoughts differently compared to a by-election”. He maintained that the backing for Sunak’s leadership remained “firm” and that “by-elections do not alter this”.
Nonetheless, the recent revelation of the economy plunging into a recession, coupled with this dual electoral setback, is likely to unsettle the Tories under Sunak’s leadership as the extent of the anti-incumbency sentiment becomes evident.
“Sir John Curtice, a renowned pollster and Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, notes that the party’s loss in these seats is alarming not just because of the loss itself, but also due to the magnitude and nature of the defeats. The party’s vote share plummeted by an astonishing 37.6 points in Wellingborough, marking the most significant decline the party has ever experienced in a by-election it was defending.”
“However, these were by-elections where voters’ discontent with the Conservatives was seemingly not matched in equal measure by its enthusiasm for Labour,” he said.
“These outcomes offer a bit of solace to Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, who had a tough week. He had to reduce his party’s green investment strategy and was also caught up in a controversy over antisemitism.”
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